Predictions — CFB Winning Edge

The 2018 college football season is finally here. Last Saturday we were treated to four games featuring FBS programs including two FBS vs. FBS matchups. The Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors were the first team to claim a conference victory after jumping out to a 30-point lead on the road against Colorado State. UH survived a furious comeback attempt from the Rams to win 43-34. The win was the first outright upset of the season and displayed how the unpredictability of college football is one of its greatest qualities.

The Wyoming Cowboys also picked up a road win over fellow 2017 bowl team New Mexico State. The Cowboys were dominant on defense and held the Aggies to a single fourth quarter touchdown in a 29-7 victory. Elsewhere, Massachusetts was explosive offensively in a 63-15 victory over FCS opponent Duquesne and Rice survived an upset attempt from Prairie View A&M to win 31-28 on a last-second field goal in new head coach Mike Bloomgren’s debut with the Owls.

Related: Week 0 Previews & Predictions

At CFB Winning Edge, we use our computer model, which includes a data-driven and opinion-free individual rating for every player and coach, as a baseline for every matchup. At the beginning of every week, we release the computer projections for each FBS vs. FBS game. Those projections, which include a predicted point spread, show a bird’s eye view of each contest.

However, we also take a closer look to preview and predict the final score of every game between FBS programs. We use the projections as a guide, but our predictions are opinion-based (and it’s important to note, are the only aspects of CFB Winning Edge that include opinion). Also, our predictions account for many of the things our model doesn’t, such as weather, pace of play, travel, and potentially overrated or underrated players and coaches. We also make updates based on weekly news, including injuries and suspensions. Afterwards, we compare our picks against the lines set by Las Vegas sports books – both the point spread and the total (or over/under) – to test our evaluation methods.

In the previews to follow, readers will see our current national power ranking (No. 1-130), and the associated team strength rating (70-100) for every squad.

2018 Results

Straight Up: 1-1 (.500)
Against the Spread: 1-1 (.500)
Totals (Over/Under): 2-0 (1.000)

WEEK 1 PREDICTIONS

No. 54 UCF Knights (83.64) at No. 117 Connecticut Huskies (74.86)

· Date:Thursday, August 30, 2018

· Time:7:00 p.m. Eastern (7:00 p.m. Local)

· Matchup:American Athletic Conference game

· Location:East Hartford, CT – Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field (40,000)

· Point Spread and Totals (Vegas Insider):

o Opening Line: UCF -23

o Current Line: UCF -24

o Opening Total: 70.5

o Current Total: 70

· Homefield Advantage:Connecticut 2.75 (Phil Steele)

· TV:ESPNU

· Weather:High 88, Low 64; Sunny

· Visitor Travel: 1,212 miles

· Last Meeting:UCF 49, UConn 24 (2017)

PLAYERS TO WATCH

UCF

QB 10 McKenzie Milton - 92.7 VGR+ (No. 28 FBS QB, No. 1 AAC QB)

23 career games played, 23 career games started, 13.3 career production points

RB 9 Adrian Killins, Jr.– 85.4 VGR+ (No. 108 FBS, No. 5 AAC)

26 GP, 13 GS, 5.3 PP

LB 56 Patrick Jasinski, Sr. – 91 VGR+ (No. 106 FBS, No. 1 AAC)

38 GP, 19 GS, 9.9 PP

DB 25 Kyle Gibson, Sr. – 97.8 VGR+ (No. 28 FBS, No. 3 AAC)

34 GP, 19 GS, 7.9 PP

DB 23 Tre Neal, Sr. – 91.7 VGR+ (No. 100 FBS, No. 7 AAC)

38 GP, 18 GS, 7.8 PP

Connecticut

QB 5 David Pindell, Sr. – 80.6 VGR+ (No. 129 FBS QB, No. 12 AAC QB)

7 career games played, 4 career games started, 0.4 career production points

WR 1 Hergy Mayala, Sr.– 86.6 VGR+ (No. 180 FBS, No. 9 AAC)

31 GP, 23 GS, 5.3 PP

RB 34 Kevin Mensah, So. – 70.8 VGR+ (No. 565 FBS, No. 40 AAC)

11 GP, 4 GS, 2.4 PP

DB 25 Tyler Coyle, So. – 77.2 VGR+ (No. 782 FBS, No. 45 AAC)

12 GP, 9 GS, 5.9 PP

DB 41 Marshe’ Terry, So. – 69.6 VGR+ (No. 1623 FBS, No. 129 AAC)

22 GP, 11 GS, 3.1 PP

UNIT BREAKDOWNS

QUARTERBACK

UCF

· Unit Rating: 87.76 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 29 FBS, No. 2 AAC

Connecticut

· Unit Rating: 78.2 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 94 FBS, No. 10 AAC

RUNNING BACK

UCF

· Unit Rating: 83.68 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 57 FBS, No. 3 AAC

Connecticut

· Unit Rating: 71.12 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 128 FBS, No. 12 AAC

RECEIVER

UCF

· Unit Rating: 79.84 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 69 FBS, No. 5 AAC

Connecticut

· Unit Rating: 78.06 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 88 FBS, No. 10 AAC

OFFENSIVE LINE

UCF

· Unit Rating: 82.45 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 39 FBS, No. 1 AAC

Connecticut

· Unit Rating: 75.16 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 104 FBS, No. 11 AAC

DEFENSIVE LINE

UCF

· Unit Rating: 81.28 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 61 FBS, No. 3 AAC

Connecticut

· Unit Rating: 75.47 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 109 FBS, No. 9 AAC

LINEBACKER

UCF

· Unit Rating: 84.91 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 40 FBS, No. 1 AAC

Connecticut

· Unit Rating: 72.95 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 123 FBS, No. 12 AAC

DEFENSIVE BACK

UCF

· Unit Rating: 80.21 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 71 FBS, No. 6 AAC

Connecticut

· Unit Rating: 70.36 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 129 FBS, No. 12 AAC

SPECIAL TEAMS

We don’t yet include team or player ratings for special teams.

COACHING

UCF

· Head Coach Rating: 78.25

· Head Coach Rankings: No. 100 FBS, No. 10 AAC

Connecticut

· Head Coach Rating: 81.83

· Head Coach Rankings: No. 79 FBS, No. 6 AAC

ANALYSIS

At No. 54, our model ranks the Knights much lower than most pollsters, but we recognize UCF is still the most talented team in the AAC and one of the most talented Group of Five teams in the country. Connecticut is on the opposite end of the spectrum, which shouldn’t come as a shock given the stark differences in the local recruiting bases between the two programs. The Knights are also far more experienced than the Huskies. The only position group in which UConn has more career starts is receiver (60, compared to UCF’s 29).

According to our wVGR+ metric, the Knights hold an edge in every single position group – often by a considerable margin. At linebacker, UCF has the No. 1 unit in the conference and Connecticut ranks at the bottom of the league. The Knights boast the highest rated linebacker in the AAC in Pat Jasinski, who posted 104 total tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, one sack and one interception as a junior. In the secondary, the Knights feature the most productive defensive backs in the conference in senior safeties Kyle Gibson and Tre Neal. UCF also returns two All-AAC candidates on the defensive line in nose tackle Trysten Hill and defensive end Titus Davis.

On the other side of the football, the Knights also hold a huge edge on the offensive line with the No. 1 unit in the AAC compared to the Huskies, who sit at No. 11. Center Jordan Johnson and tackle Wyatt Miller, who were first and second-team All-AAC standouts in 2017, respectively, headline the unit. Those are big edges at every position group outside the offensive skill positions, where the Knights feature some of the best players in G5 football.

UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton thrived under former head coach Scott Frost. Last year, Milton threw for 4,037 yards and 37 touchdowns and added 613 yards and eight scores on the ground. One of the top dual-threat QBs in the nation, Milton gives new head coach Josh Heupel a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate to work with. Milton is also surrounded with speedy playmakers like diminutive running back Adrian Killins and rushing-receiving weapon Otis Anderson, who combined for more than 1,300 rushing yards last season, as well as big-play wide receiver Dredrick Snelson, who takes over as Milton’s top target following the departure of Tre’Quan Smith. Fellow wideout Gabriel Davis has great size at 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds, and Ole Miss transfer Tre Nixon adds a new talented threat to the unit.

The only area in which we see an edge for UConn is its coaching staff – and it’s worth noting that edge is based almost entirely on experience and not necessarily on talent. After all, Heupel’s Mizzou offense scored 52 on UConn in 2017. But Huskies head coach Randy Edsall has had some success at UConn, and despite last year’s 3-9 finish still holds a winning record at the school (73-72 in two stints). Edsall was 22-34 at Maryland prior to his return.

Though Edsall’s career stats are modest, he has 18 years of experience leading an FBS program. Heupel, the former Missouri offensive coordinator, will be a head coach for the first time. He also inherits huge expectations for a first-time G5 head coach after the Knights finished 13-0 last season. Because of his inexperience, and the hype surrounding the program, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Knights start slowly in 2018. Nevertheless, the talent and experience on the roster (along with Heupel’s penchant for high-scoring offense) should carry UCF to an easy Week 1 victory.

CFB WINNING EDGE COMPUTER PROJECTION

UCF by 19.2 points

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

UCF 42, CONNECTICUT 21

No. 114 New Mexico State (75.95) at No. 67 Minnesota (82.67)

· Date:Thursday, August 30, 2018

· Time:7:00 p.m. Eastern, 6:00 p.m. Local

· Matchup:Non-Conference

· Location:Minneapolis, MN – TCF Bank Stadium (50,805)

· Point Spread and Totals, According to Vegas Insider:

o Opening Line: Minnesota -18.5

o Current Line: Minnesota -22

o Opening Total: 45.5

o Current Total: 46.5

· Homefield Advantage:Minnesota 3.5 (Phil Steele)

· TV:Big Ten Network

· Weather:High 81, Low 61; Partly cloudy

· Visitor Travel: 1,357 miles

PLAYERS TO WATCH

New Mexico State

QB 3 Matt Romero, Jr. – 66.6 VGR+ (No. 374 FBS QB)

1 career games played, 1 career games started, 0.1 career production points, JUCO transfer

RB 1 Jason Huntley, Jr.– 74.2 VGR+ (No. 458 FBS)

23 GP, 5 GS, 1.6 PP

C 74 Jamin Smith, Jr. – 78.4 VGR+ (No. 614 FBS)

13 GP, 12 GS, 2.6 PP

LB 2 Terrill Hanks, Sr. – 100 VGR+ (T-No. 1 FBS)

35 GP, 35 GS, 33.6 PP

SS 22 Shamad Lomax, Jr. - 87.4 VGR+ (No. 220 FBS)

24 GP, 19 GS, 12.9 PP

Minnesota

QB 5 Zack Annexstad, Fr. – 63.8 VGR+ (No. 382 FBS QB, No. 40 Big Ten)

0 career games played, 0 career games started, 0 career production points, true freshman

RB 1 Rodney Smith, Sr.– 97.5 VGR+ (No. 16 FBS, No. 5 Big Ten)

37 GP, 30 GS, 14 PP

WR 6 Tyler Johnson, Jr. – 86.2 VGR+ (No. 192 FBS, No. 24 Big Ten)

23 GP, 11 GS, 4.1 PP

DE 45 Carter Coughlin, Jr. – 99.1 VGR+ (No. 36 FBS, No. 4 Big Ten)

37 GP, 37 GS, 29.7 PP

DB 2 Jacob Huff, Sr. – 90.8 VGR+ (No. 121 FBS, No. 16 Big Ten)

21 GP, 12 GS, 9.2 PP

UNIT BREAKDOWNS

QUARTERBACK

New Mexico State

· Unit Rating: 69.47 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 128 FBS

Minnesota

· Unit Rating: 65.7 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 130 FBS, No. 14 Big Ten

RUNNING BACK

New Mexico State

· Unit Rating: 74.63 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 120 FBS

Minnesota

· Unit Rating: 90.48 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 21 FBS, No. 8 Big Ten

RECEIVER

New Mexico State

· Unit Rating: 71.94 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 128 FBS

Minnesota

· Unit Rating: 76.79 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 100 FBS, No. 14 Big Ten

OFFENSIVE LINE

New Mexico State

· Unit Rating: 75.50 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 100 FBS

Minnesota

· Unit Rating: 79.68 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 65 FBS, No. 13 Big Ten

DEFENSIVE LINE

New Mexico State

· Unit Rating: 76.66 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 101 FBS

Minnesota

· Unit Rating: 84.99 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 33 FBS, No. 8 Big Ten

LINEBACKER

New Mexico State

· Unit Rating: 82.3 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 64 FBS

Minnesota

· Unit Rating: 84.76 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 47 FBS, No. 9 Big Ten

DEFENSIVE BACK

New Mexico State

· Unit Rating: 76.47 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 107 FBS

Minnesota

· Unit Rating: 80.51 (wVGR+)

· Unit Ranking: No. 64 FBS, No. 9 Big Ten

SPECIAL TEAMS

We don’t yet include team or player ratings for special teams.

COACHING

New Mexico State

· Head Coach Rating: 78.85

· Head Coach Rankings: No. 97 FBS

Minnesota

· Head Coach Rating: 86.3

· Head Coach Rankings: No. 54 FBS, No. 9 Big Ten

ANALYSIS

There are benefits to playing a Week 0 game. For New Mexico State, one of the top benefits of playing last Saturday was knocking off the rust from a long offseason both on the field and in terms of prepping for an opponent in practice and field study. It’s a small advantage, but an advantage nonetheless.

However, there are obvious drawbacks to playing in Week 0 – especially when kicking off in Week 1 on a Thursday. Not only did Minnesota have an opportunity to scout the 2018 Aggies in action against Wyoming, the Golden Gophers have been prepping for New Mexico State all offseason. Conversely, the Aggies likely spent the vast majority of their winter, spring and summer looking forward to the game against Wyoming. NM State also hasn’t seen the 2018 Minnesota squad take the field and must instead rely on film of the 2017 Gophers. Again, it’s a relatively small disadvantage, but a disadvantage nonetheless. But the bigger advantages for Minnesota include NM State working on a short week (with only four full days of preparation), and a deeper and more talented roster. Our unit breakdowns show an edge for the Gophers at nearly every position group.

The only unit in which New Mexico State has an edge is quarterback, and it’s a small one. Matt Romero, a junior college transfer, completed 16 of 27 pass attempts with one touchdown in his first start for the Aggies last week. Romero, who was pulled for a short stint in the second half against Wyoming, connected with Drew Dan for a 31-yard TD late in the fourth quarter against the second-team Cowboys defense. Zack Annexstad, a walk-on true freshman, won the preseason competition with redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan to start for P.J. Fleck’s Golden Gophers. Annexstad, who started for Florida high school powerhouse IMG Academy despite being teammates with four-star Rutgers true freshman and new starter Artur Sitkowski, is more talented than his FBS-worst 63.8 VGR+ would indicate.

Also, Annexstad has two underrated weapons at his disposal to help him ease into action. Running back Rodney Smith should see a heavy workload. Smith gained 977 rushing yards and three touchdowns last season and has 11 career 100-yard rushing games. If he stays healthy, Smith is likely to rank among the FBS leaders in carries, especially since backup Shannon Brooks suffered a season-ending knee injury during spring practice. Annexstad also has the benefit of one of the Big Ten’s best receivers, Tyler Johnson, who averaged 19.3 yards per catch and scored seven TDs as a sophomore in 2017.

Several of New Mexico State’s best players are also underrated. The Aggies have several exciting playmakers on offense, led by speedy multi-use running back Jason Huntley, though Huntley (like the NM State offense as a whole) struggled to break loose against Wyoming. Huntley gained just 22 yards on nine carries. He tied for the team lead with five receptions but gained just 25 yards including a long of 12. O.J. Clark also had five receptions against the Cowboys but gained only 12 yards and didn’t have a catch longer than five yards. Dan led the squad with 60 yards on two receptions.

Defensively, New Mexico State has two of the most productive players in the nation in linebacker Terrill Hanks (who leads all FBS players in our production points metrics) and safety Shamad Lomax, who led the Aggies with four interceptions in 2017. However, the Aggies struggled to contain the Wyoming run game last week and allowed 312 rushing yards on 57 carries – a 5.5-yard average.

Minnesota has its own set of defensive playmakers. Led by pass rusher Carter Coughlin, linebackers Thomas Barber and Blake Cashman and defensive backs Jacob Huff and Antoine Winfield, the Gophers finished No. 30 nationally in total defense (346.7 yards allowed per game), No. 36 in scoring defense (22.8 points allowed per game) and No. 11 against the pass (126.1 yards allowed per game) last season. With seven starters returning, including three of the unit’s top four tacklers, those numbers could be even better in 2018.

CFB WINNING EDGE COMPUTER PROJECTION

Minnesota by 20.3 points

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

MINNESOTA 34, NEW MEXICO STATE 17

No. 51 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (84.17) at No. 98 Tulane Green Wave (78.10)

· Date:Thursday, August 30, 2018

· Time:8:00 p.m. Eastern (7:00 p.m. Local)

· Matchup:Non-conference

· Location:New Orleans, LA – Yulman Stadium (30,000)

· Point Spread and Totals (Vegas Insider):

o Opening Line: Wake Forest -7.5

o Current Line: Wake Forest -6

o Opening Total: 57

o Current Total: 57.5

· Homefield Advantage:Tulane 2.75 (Phil Steele)

· TV:CBS Sports Network

· Weather:High 84, Low 77; Thunderstorms possible

· Visitor Travel: 789 miles

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Wake Forest

QB 10 Sam Hartman, Fr. – 73.3 VGR+ (No. 278 FBS QB, No. 39 ACC QB)

0 career games played, 0 career games started, 0 career production points, true freshman

RB 22 Matt Colburn, Sr.– 92.2 VGR+ (No. 37 FBS, No. 6 ACC)

36 GP, 13 GS, 7.3 PP

WR 3 Greg Dortch, So. – 85 VGR+ (No. 240 FBS, No. 37 ACC)

8 GP, 6 GS, 6.6 PP

C 70 Ryan Anderson, Sr. – 90 VGR+ (No. 97 FBS, No. 18 ACC)

33 GP, 30 GS, 10PP

CB 21 Essang Bassey, Jr. – 89.3 VGR+ (No. 162 FBS, No. 21 ACC)

25 GP, 15 GS, 11.5 PP

Tulane

QB 1 Jonathan Banks, Sr. – 80.0 VGR+ (No. 140 FBS QB, No. 13 AAC QB)

11 career games played, 11 career games started, 2.1 career production points

RB 6 Corey Dauphine, Jr.– 87.1 VGR+ (No. 77 FBS, No. 2 AAC)

3 GP, 0 GS, 0PP, Texas Tech transfer

WR 5 Terren Encalade, Sr. – 83.2 VGR+ (No. 320 FBS, No. 20 AAC)

38 GP, 20 GS, 6 PP

LB 40 Zachery Harris, Sr. – 85 VGR+ (No. 223 FBS, No. 11 AAC)

24 GP, 17 GS, 4.7 PP

DB 1 Donnie Lewis – 90.4 VGR+ (No. 131 FBS, No. 9 AAC)

31 GP, 31 GS, 10.1 PP

UNIT BREAKDOWNS

QUARTERBACK

Wake Forest

· Unit Rating: 75.22 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 103 FBS, No. 13 ACC

Tulane

· Unit Rating: 79.17 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 89 FBS, No. 9 AAC

RUNNING BACK

Wake Forest

· Unit Rating: 87.47(wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 34 FBS, No. 4 ACC

Tulane

· Unit Rating: 83.13 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 58 FBS, No. 4 AAC

RECEIVER

Wake Forest

· Unit Rating: 79.44 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 73 FBS, No. 11 ACC

Tulane

· Unit Rating: 78.97 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 78 FBS, No. 7 AAC

OFFENSIVE LINE

Wake Forest

· Unit Rating: 82.77 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 36 FBS, No. 6 ACC

Tulane

· Unit Rating: 76.23 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 93 FBS, No. 8 AAC

DEFENSIVE LINE

Wake Forest

· Unit Rating: 82.12 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 53 FBS, No. 10 ACC

Tulane

· Unit Rating: 73.75 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 121 FBS, No. 12 AAC

LINEBACKER

Wake Forest

· Unit Rating: 81.09 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 74 FBS, No. 12 ACC

Tulane

· Unit Rating: 77.13 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 111 FBS, No. 8 AAC

DEFENSIVE BACK

Wake Forest

· Unit Rating: 81.59 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 50 FBS, No. 7 ACC

Tulane

· Unit Rating: 78.88 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 87 FBS, No. 7 AAC

SPECIAL TEAMS

We don’t yet include team or player ratings for special teams.

COACHING

Wake Forest

· Head Coach Rating: 88.45

· Head Coach Rankings: No. 46 FBS, No. 9 ACC

Connecticut

· Head Coach Rating: 79.70

· Head Coach Rankings: No. 94 FBS, No. 6 AAC

ANALYSIS

Looking for an early upset in the first full weekend of the 2018 college football season? Several fans and analysts have pointed to Tulane, led by offensive whiz Willie Fritz, who host a traditional power five also-ran Wake Forest team on a Thursday night.

The Green Wave have made strides under Fritz, particularly on offense where the unit improved its yards-per-play performance from 4.8 in 2016 to 5.8 a year ago. Quarterback Jonathan Banks was a big part of that improvement. The dual-threat senior completed a modest 56.6 percent of his passes, but that figure was a huge jump from the 42.2 percent completion rate Green Wave QBs had the previous year. Banks also proved to be a playmaker with his legs and gained 592 net rushing yards with seven touchdowns on the ground.

Banks will have his top three receivers – Terren Encalade, Darnell Mooney and Jabril Clewis, respectively, back for 2018, but Tulane must replace 1,000-yard tailback Dontrell Hilliard, who averaged 5.2 yards per carry and scored 12 rushing TDs and two more on receptions. He also welcomes back five offensive linemen with starting experience, including South Alabama transfer Noah Fisher, who earned first team All-Sun Belt Conference honors last year.

However, the Green Wave faces a tough test on defense because this isn’t the same old, boring Wake Forest offense anymore. Even with two-year multi-threat starting quarterback John Wolford gone and projected new starter Kendall Hinton suspended for the first few weeks of the season, the Demon Deacons return nine starters from a squad that averaged 35.3 points per game and 6.3 yards per play.

Veteran running back Matt Colburn ran for 904 yards and seven TDs last season and Greg Dortch and Scotty Washington combined for more than 1,400 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Dortch was one of the most productive receivers in the nation with three 100-yard performances and a four-TD game as a true freshman, and he earned a third team All-ACC nod even after suffering a season-ending injury after eight games. Washington, however, is doubtful to play due to injury. The unit also lost Tabari Hines to transfer. But, the offensive line is solid and very experienced. Its 132 combined career starts are the second most in the nation, behind only Wisconsin. Center Ryan Anderson was first team All-ACC, and tackle Justin Herron could join him after making honorable mention last season.

The question, of course, is at quarterback. True freshman Sam Hartman surged up the depth chart during the spring and summer and will start under center. Hartman was an underrated prospect who committed to Wake early and never wavered. It’s never a given a true freshman will succeed – especially in his first start on the road – but it shouldn’t be a surprise if Hartman plays well enough to hold on to the job when Hinton returns.

Hartman is also set up for success. Tulane cornerback Donnie Lewis is one of the best in the AAC, and linebacker Zachary Harris is a productive player, but the defense is young as a whole. The Green Wave also allowed an ugly 5.4 yards per carry, 6.7 yards per play, and surrendered over 200 yards both rushing (210) and passing (226) last season. With three new starters on the defensive line facing one of the best offensive fronts in the ACC, Tulane is at a major disadvantage on the line of scrimmage.

As a result, despite the inexperience at QB, Wake Forest should take care of business on the road against an inferior opponent. If you’re looking for an early upset, there may be better options elsewhere.

CFB WINNING EDGE COMPUTER PROJECTION

Wake Forest by 12.35

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

WAKE FOREST 35, TULANE 24

No. 25 Northwestern Wildcats (88.36) at No. 47 Purdue Boilermakers (84.60)

· Date:Thursday, August 30, 2018

· Time:8:00 p.m. Eastern (8:00 p.m. Local)

· Matchup:Big Ten Conference game

· Location:West Lafayette, IN – Ross-Ade Stadium (62,500)

· Point Spread and Totals (Vegas Insider):

o Opening Line: Purdue -3

o Current Line: Purdue -1.5

o Opening Total: 50.5

o Current Total: 52.5

· Homefield Advantage:Purdue 2.5 (Phil Steele)

· TV:ESPN

· Weather:High 77, Low 58; Partly cloudy

· Visitor Travel: 138 miles

· Last Meeting:Northwestern 23, Purdue 13 (2017)

PLAYERS TO WATCH

NORTHWESTERN

QB 18 Clayton Thorson, Sr. - 100 VGR+ (T-No. 1 FBS QB, No. 1 Big Ten QB)

39 career games played, 39 career games started, 10.9 career production points

RB 28 Jeremy Larkin, So.– 79.6 VGR+ (No. 232 FBS, No. 37 Big Ten)

13 GP, 0 GS, 1 PP

DL 97 Joe Gaziano, Jr. – 96.4 VGR+ (No. 45 FBS, No. 5 Big Ten)

25 GP, 13 GS, 15.3 PP

LB 42 Paddy Fisher, So. – 84.8 VGR+ (No. 230 FBS, No. 34 Big Ten)

12 GP, 12 GS, 9.2 PP

LB 32 Nate Hall, Sr. – 99.7 VGR+ (No. 29 FBS, No. 2 Big Ten)

39 GP, 25 GS, 17.5 PP

PURDUE

QB 2 Elijah Sindelar, Jr. – 84.2 VGR+ (No. 86 FBS QB, No. 11 Big Ten QB)

17 career games played, 8 career games started, 2.8 career production points

RB 1 D.J. Knox, Sr.– 84.1 VGR+ (No. 137 FBS, No. 21 Big Ten)

35 GP, 11 GS, 3.1 PP

LT 78 Grant Hermanns, So. – 73.8 VGR+ (No. 975 FBS, No. 39 Big Ten)

6 GP, 6 GS, 1.2 PP

DT 9 Lorenzo Neal, Jr. – 82.6 VGR+ (No. 345 FBS, No. 54 Big Ten)

20 GP, 16 GS, 5.6 PP

LB 21 Markus Bailey, Jr. – 96.9 VGR+ (No. 46 FBS, No. 5 Big Ten)

28 GP, 25 GS, 16.5 PP

UNIT BREAKDOWNS

QUARTERBACK

Northwestern

· Unit Rating: 93.44 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 11 FBS, No. 3 Big Ten

Purdue

· Unit Rating: 85.69 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 41 FBS, No. 4 Big Ten

RUNNING BACK

Northwestern

· Unit Rating: 79.13 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 87 FBS, No. 12 Big Ten

Purdue

· Unit Rating: 86.29 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 41 FBS, No. 9 Big Ten

RECEIVER

Northwestern

· Unit Rating: 86.04 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 20 FBS, No. 4 Big Ten

Purdue

· Unit Rating: 78.26 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 85 FBS, No. 10 Big Ten

OFFENSIVE LINE

Northwestern

· Unit Rating: 83.00 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 34 FBS, No. 8 Big Ten

Purdue

· Unit Rating: 79.91 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 63 FBS, No. 12 Big Ten

DEFENSIVE LINE

Northwestern

· Unit Rating: 87.32 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 22 FBS, No. 4 Big Ten

Purdue

· Unit Rating: 77.10 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 100 FBS, No. 14 Big Ten

LINEBACKER

Northwestern

· Unit Rating: 84.87 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 41 FBS, No. 7 Big Ten

Purdue

· Unit Rating: 78.77 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 96 FBS, No. 12 Big Ten

DEFENSIVE BACK

Northwestern

· Unit Rating: 80.30 (wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 69 FBS, No. 10 Big Ten

Purdue

· Unit Rating: 79.60(wVGR+)

· Unit Rankings: No. 77 FBS, No. 11 Big Ten

SPECIAL TEAMS

We don’t yet include team or player ratings for special teams.

COACHING

Northwestern

· Head Coach Rating: 93.53

· Head Coach Rankings: No. 16 FBS, No. 4 Big Ten

Purdue

· Head Coach Rating: 92.62

· Head Coach Rankings: No. 19 FBS, No. 6 Big Ten

ANALYSIS

The Northwestern-Purdue Week 1 matchup will be the first big test of our 2018 model. Purdue is a slight favorite at home. The Boilermakers, coming off a surprising bowl bid in Jeff Brohm’s first season as head coach, opened as a three-point favorite over the 10-win Wildcats. The line has narrowed, though as of press time the Boilermakers were still favored by 1.5. However, our computer projection – which uses an individual overall rating for every player and head coach from which to build upon – sees Purdue as nearly a touchdown underdog.

Of course, it’s important to note the line might be slightly skewed because Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson (who earned a 100 VGR+ based on his talent, experience and career production) is questionable to play because he is still recovering from a serious knee injury suffered in last year’s bowl game. Our model uses Thorson as the starter, and he means a lot to the Wildcats. Nevertheless, even if he were unable to play, we’d have Northwestern as a one-point favorite on the road.

Therefore, according to our metrics, the wrong team is favored – even if the star QB isn’t healthy enough to play.

Why? Going down the depth charts, Northwestern has an edge at receiver, offensive line, and on every defensive unit. The Wildcats, despite some struggles against the pass in 2017, have one of the best defenses in the Big Ten. The Northwestern front seven welcomes back five full-time starters and includes three likely All-Big Ten performers in defensive end Joe Gaziano and linebackers Paddy Fisher (the first sophomore team captain under head coach Pat Fitzgerald) and Nate Hall. The secondary must replace two starters at safety, but cornerback Montre Hartage is experienced and productive, and another potential all-conference performer.

The Wildcats will certainly have their hands full with what should be an improved Purdue offense. While Northwestern might be forced to start a walk-on QB (T.J. Green, the son of longtime NFL starter Trent Green), Purdue has two veteran signal callers with vast experience. Strong-armed Elijah Sindelar is the projected at the top of the depth chart, though 20-game starter David Blough is likely to play as well. The Boilermakers also have a deep backfield With D.J. Knox, Markell Jones and Tario Fuller all earning starts in years past. And let’s not forget Brohm is one of the great offensive minds in the game today.

The Boilermakers lost their top two leaders in receiving yards from last year’s squad, but Jackson Anthrop was a dependable possession receiver who led the team in catches, tight end Cole Herdman averaged 16.5 yards per reception, converted quarterback Jared Sparks has great leadership qualities and intriguing potential, and true freshman Rondale Moore might be one of the fastest players in the entire country. Moore has an opportunity to make a huge immediate impact as a receiver and return man.

Purdue also welcomes back some talented and productive players on defense, led by linebacker Markus Bailey, underrated defensive tackle Lorenzo Neal and safeties Navon Modley and Jacob Thieneman. However, those four are the only returning starters for the unit that propelled Purdue to the postseason a year ago. Run defense, a huge turnaround area for Purdue a year ago, is a question mark and creates the potential for new Northwestern running back Jeremy Larkin to play a big role in the matchup regardless of who hands him the football. Larkin, who backed up record breaker Justin Jackson last year, provided an explosiveness that the rest of the offense lacked. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry and got stronger as the season progressed.

CFB WINNING EDGE COMPUTER PROJECTION

Northwestern by 6.65 points (Thorson) / Northwestern by 0.95 points (without Thorson)

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

NORTHWESTERN 24, PURDUE 21

UPDATE: We have a new and (hopefully) improved format for our weekly predictions. Here are the six FBS vs. FBS previews for Week 1:

2018 Bowl Games Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 14 & Conf. Champ. Final Score Predictions

Week 13 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 12 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 11 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 10 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 9 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 8 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 7 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 6 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 5 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 4 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 3 Projections & Final Score Predictions

Week 2 Projections & Predictions

Week 1 Projections & Predictions - Miami-LSU, Virginia Tech-Florida State

Week 1 Projections & Predictions - Saturday

Week 1 Previews & Predictions - Thursday/Friday

CFB Winning Edge Week 0 Game Predictions

2018 Results

WEEK 0 Predictions

No. 125 Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (73.43) at No. 87 Colorado State Rams (76.69)

Date: Saturday, August 25, 2018

CFB WINNING EDGE PRESEASON PROJECTION

PREDICTION

No. 76 Wyoming Cowboys (73.43) at No. 114 New Mexico State Aggies (76.69)

CFB WINNING EDGE PRESEASON PROJECTION

PREDICTION